3.13 am on Monday morning
after the worst weekend of 2011. Isn't Spring a wonderful time of
the year? A couple of lessons have
been learned - and you never know so much that you can't learn.
1: Striking yourself in
the leg with an angle grinder turning at 10000 rpm tends to get your
attention very quickly. This is not a good thing to do. It also tends
to get spouses very upset when the blood and the swearing starts.
People at the emergency section of your local hospital will tell you
they see this every weekend. Only a few every year are fatal.
Surprisingly there is actually
very little pain when you first try to cut your leg off. It is only
after a few minutes that the pain really begins. Copious quantities
of Ibuprofen doesn't really help. This is not a recommended procedure.
2: No matter how consistent
for however long, no method is immune from loss and winning expectations
are very hard to rationalise when they're not met. Let me illustrate.
Our OutRater method has performed very very well this year. In fact
it is one of the very few that we have continued on with after our
official "test period" and use alongside new ideas and approaches
that we are testing all the time and have done for many years.
Week after week our expectation
- based on a lengthy test period of 1000 bets - had been that on an
average Saturday, spread over all five States, we could rationally
expect between 8 and 13 winners and a total of about 20 - 25+ place
getters. It's just what happened. Those are the long term expectations
we held so Saturday was a real eye opener. On this method we have
been betting both for a win and a place at level stakes which tended
to ameliorate any long run of outs on the win side of the ledger.
This approach was also foiled
on the weekend. If I had to listen to one more commentator say those
immortal words "and officially fourth was......" I think
I would have turned it up and made my own way to the crematorium and
saved them the transport costs.
So that was Saturday and
Sunday was no better. So what changed with the intricacies of the
"formula"? Nothing. What was I doing wrong? Nothing. What
was I forgetting? Nothing.
It just "was".
Good old Tiger Woods was
asked just before the PGA Championship last month how he thought he'd
go and he simply said he expected to win. As he'd played in one tournament
since April, it rather interested me that his winning expectation
would still be so high. Then again, knowing the success this guy has
had, it shouldn't really have surprised me at all. How far in front
over his golfing career do you think he is in regard to his expenses
vs his winnings? So what if he didn't win the PGA? What minute percentage
change was there to his overall bottom line?
The gambling expectations
I hold are that at the end of the year I will have more in my punting
bank than I had on January 1 and for the last several years this has
proven to be true so while Saturday was an unmitigated mess, the long
term plan is still well and truly on track and panic never entered
the equation. (Another good reason to put all your bets on in
advance and then go and do something else - like meet new people at
the emergency section of your local hospital)
At the height of Saturday's
doom and gloom I got an email from a guy in Elizabeth over the moon
because he'd been using our older Counters method and had just saluted
with Just Sybil at nearly 50/1. Life's a marvellous thing isn't it?
The way to success at punting,
really, is quite simple. Consistency. Patience. Long term goals. As
we've written on this site many times before, there are no worthwhile
short term goals in gambling that you should aspire to because very
few are attainable unless blessed with an unsustainable run of good
luck. Luck, of course, comes and goes. Knowledge stays forever.
Running more than one approach
tends to also counter days like the weekend just passed when nothing
seems to go right and against all historical data but, in a lot of
cases, it's hard enough to focus on one idea completely, let alone
multiples. One guy that writes quite often runs up to 11 selection
methods at a time through a complicated set up on his computer. I
couldn't do that. Three or four pull me up.
Hopefully, the worst weekend's
result for 2011 is now behind us but of course there are no guarantees.
Short term variances of "the norm" happen all the time in
gambling. The long term percentages really vary only marginally. It's
how casinos survive. Long term percentages.
The very hardest question
for the average punter like me is what do you do if this "worst
run of outs" scenario occurs at the beginning of a betting sequence
when you're trying your damnedest to establish a long term bank? Well
it has happened to me on quite a few occasions. I generally give each
methodology up to three "starts" at establishing a long
term bank before I discard them. If they don't click for me after
three they're never going to and I lose interest. And by the way,
I don't bet very big to achieve the results I do. Read "Greedy
Gambling" also on this site. When I start looking at new
methodology I generally establish a notional "bank" of $250.
If I run that up to around $500 I will then commit to a test bank
of $1000 and see where we go from there.
You generally don't win
or lose in a straight line. It mostly occurs in a series of plus or
minus curves within a (mostly) consistent distribution pattern that
will trend either up or down over a longer period. Riding out the
down curves without panicking is the key to the whole shebang and
the key that most people fail to find.
So the weekend could have
been worse. It wasn't. My 2011 long term bank is going okay. I still
have two legs. And a sense of humour.